On November 4, the European Commission presented the 2025 edition of its “enlargement reports”, which assess the progress of candidate countries in the accession process. Behind this technical exercise lies the potential admission of new Member States by 2030.
A process based on normative alignment
The enlargement process of the European Union is founded on a normative logic that ensures candidate countries align with the EU’s legal, political, and economic standards. The process is based on full compliance with the acquis communautaire and the Copenhagen criteria (1993).
The process consists of several stages.
Once the Council grants candidate status, formal negotiations between the Commission and the candidate country focus on adopting EU legislation and implementing judicial, administrative, and economic reforms.
Negotiations open and close with the cluster of fundamental principles (democracy, rule of law, human rights) and revolve around five other clusters: internal market; competitiveness and inclusive growth; green agenda and sustainable connectivity; resources, agriculture and cohesion; and external relations. Each cluster consists of multiple chapters.
Since 2020, the principle of reversibility has also been central to the process.
The process can be suspended or annulled in case of regression by the candidate country.
This flexibility was introduced to strengthen the credibility of the process among Member States.
Member States hold a central role in the process: granting candidate status, opening and closing negotiations and clusters, and final ratification. At each stage, a single Member State can block progress, as decisions are taken unanimously. Despite the ambitions of some, it is impossible to bypass a Member State’s veto. Only an abstention could yield the same effect.
Different paths
The enlargement process currently involves ten countries, grouped into two main regions: the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe.
At the core of enlargement since 2003, the Western Balkan countries face very different situations:
- Montenegro and Albania are seen as frontrunners due to recent progress. Montenegro aims to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania has opened multiple clusters in recent months. Both countries aim to join the EU by 2028.
- Serbia, on the other hand, was criticized in the latest report for serious democratic shortcomings, especially concerning rule-of-law deficiencies.
- North Macedonia, long considered a model student, remains stalled due to a new bilateral dispute with Bulgaria. No resolution is expected soon.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina suffers from major internal dysfunctions and has been unable to meet Brussels’ requirements since obtaining candidate status in 2022.
- Kosovo, still unrecognized by five EU Member States, does not yet hold candidate status.
In Eastern Europe, enlargement has become a new reality since 2022.
Ukraine and Moldova are making major progress despite the war and Russian pressure. The Commission supports opening several clusters to illustrate this progress, though Hungary currently blocks Ukraine’s progress.
Georgia, according to Commissioner Kos, is now only a “candidate state on paper” due to state capture by oligarch Ivanishvili.
Finally, Turkey, an EU candidate since 1999, remains a thorn in Brussels’ side, with its candidacy effectively frozen.
A matter of political will
While the Commission plays a central role in the technical aspects of the process, final decisions rest with the Member States. Several factors suggest that political will does not match the Commission’s ambitions:
- Internal reforms: Member States have not begun internal reform processes, particularly institutional ones, which some—such as France—consider a prerequisite.
- Bilateral disputes: Some bilateral disagreements remain active, and new ones could emerge, blocking certain applications.
- Public opinion: As confirmed by the latest Eurobarometer, several Member States (France, Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany) hold predominantly negative public opinions toward enlargement, casting doubt on their ability to approve ratification by 2028–2030.
This highlights the main problem in the enlargement process today: implementing the required reforms and adopting European standards does not necessarily guarantee EU membership. And as long as the technical process is not supported by broad political will, enlargement will not occur.