Taking Stock of the EU’s Enlargement to the East

Hello! Today is 10 November 2025, and here is the EU news you need this week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on LinkedIn.

Romain Le Quiniou is the cofounder of Euro Creative, a think-tank focusing on the EU and Central & Eastern Europe. He is a cofounder and partner at Iron Bridge, a political intelligence and strategic communications consultancy.

On November 4, the European Commission presented the 2025 edition of its “enlargement reports”, which assess the progress of candidate countries in the accession process. Behind this technical exercise lies the potential admission of new Member States by 2030.

A process based on normative alignment

The enlargement process of the European Union is founded on a normative logic that ensures candidate countries align with the EU’s legal, political, and economic standards. The process is based on full compliance with the acquis communautaire and the Copenhagen criteria (1993).

The process consists of several stages.

Once the Council grants candidate status, formal negotiations between the Commission and the candidate country focus on adopting EU legislation and implementing judicial, administrative, and economic reforms.

Negotiations open and close with the cluster of fundamental principles (democracy, rule of law, human rights) and revolve around five other clusters: internal market; competitiveness and inclusive growth; green agenda and sustainable connectivity; resources, agriculture and cohesion; and external relations. Each cluster consists of multiple chapters.

Since 2020, the principle of reversibility has also been central to the process.

The process can be suspended or annulled in case of regression by the candidate country.

This flexibility was introduced to strengthen the credibility of the process among Member States.

Member States hold a central role in the process: granting candidate status, opening and closing negotiations and clusters, and final ratification. At each stage, a single Member State can block progress, as decisions are taken unanimously. Despite the ambitions of some, it is impossible to bypass a Member State’s veto. Only an abstention could yield the same effect.

Different paths

The enlargement process currently involves ten countries, grouped into two main regions: the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe.

At the core of enlargement since 2003, the Western Balkan countries face very different situations:

• Montenegro and Albania are seen as frontrunners due to recent progress. Montenegro aims to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania has opened multiple clusters in recent months. Both countries aim to join the EU by 2028.
• Serbia, on the other hand, was criticized in the latest report for serious democratic shortcomings, especially concerning rule-of-law deficiencies.
• North Macedonia, long considered a model student, remains stalled due to a new bilateral dispute with Bulgaria. No resolution is expected soon.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina suffers from major internal dysfunctions and has been unable to meet Brussels’ requirements since obtaining candidate status in 2022.
• Kosovo, still unrecognized by five EU Member States, does not yet hold candidate status.

In Eastern Europe, enlargement has become a new reality since 2022.

Ukraine and Moldova are making major progress despite the war and Russian pressure. The Commission supports opening several clusters to illustrate this progress, though Hungary currently blocks Ukraine’s progress.

Georgia, according to Commissioner Kos, is now only a “candidate state on paper” due to state capture by oligarch Ivanishvili.

Finally, Turkey, an EU candidate since 1999, remains a thorn in Brussels’ side, with its candidacy effectively frozen.

A matter of political will

While the Commission plays a central role in the technical aspects of the process, final decisions rest with the Member States. Several factors suggest that political will does not match the Commission’s ambitions:

• Internal reforms: Member States have not begun internal reform processes, particularly institutional ones, which some—such as France—consider a prerequisite.
• Bilateral disputes: Some bilateral disagreements remain active, and new ones could emerge, blocking certain applications.
• Public opinion: As confirmed by the latest Eurobarometer, several Member States (France, Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany) hold predominantly negative public opinions toward enlargement, casting doubt on their ability to approve ratification by 2028–2030.

This highlights the main problem in the enlargement process today: implementing the required reforms and adopting European standards does not necessarily guarantee EU membership. And as long as the technical process is not supported by broad political will, enlargement will not occur.

👉 coleurope.eu/apply

EMISSIONS TARGETS • Days before COP30 is due to take place in Brazil, several governments — including Italy and Romania — led a successful push to weaken the Council’s target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 (vs. 1990 levels).

They did so by securing a delay for the new carbon pricing system and gaining permission for governments to meet some of their greenhouse gas reduction targets by purchasing carbon credits from other countries, rather than making all emissions cuts domestically.

This move is seen as a softening of the EU’s original proposal and green ambitions.The Council’s position is part of ongoing negotiations with the European Parliament, which will vote on the EU’s climate goals on November 12-13.

DIGITAL OMNIBUS • The Commission is considering a temporary relaxation of certain provisions in its AI Act. The Digital Omnibus, which is set to be presented on 19 November, would grant companies a one-year grace period for compliance with rules on high-risk AI systems and delay fines for transparency violations until 2027.

The move aims to ease the regulatory burden and avoid provoking retaliatory measures from the US, especially amid concerns over transatlantic trade and security relations. While the core objectives of the AI Act remain unchanged, the draft seeks to make compliance more manageable and centralize enforcement. The final proposal still requires approval from EU Member States and the European Parliament.

FASTER TRAINS • The Commission has launched a plan to accelerate high-speed rail development across the EU. It aims to halve travel times on major cross-border routes and create a truly interoperable and connected rail network by 2040. The Commission plans new laws to require data sharing for ticketing, making buying pan-European rail journeys easier.

The strategy includes harmonizing infrastructure, new financing models, and measures supporting competition and innovation in rail operations, with investments potentially totalling up to €345-546 billion. A portion of the investment would be shouldered by the EU budget, with approximately €50 billion earmarked for cross-border travel in the next long term budget (2028-2034).

• In a brief for the CER, Armida van Rij and Sander Tordoir analyse the results of the Dutch elections, discussing how they reshape domestic politics and how they impact the country’s role within the EU.
• Bruegel’s Jacob Funk Kirkegaard argues that the main obstacle to completing the integration of the EU’s capital markets lies in unreformed national pension systems, which constrain investment across the continent.