What the Ceuta crisis means for Schengen’s future

Hello! This is Owain writing to you from Madrid, today is Monday 28 September, and this is your weekly update on what matters most in the European Union.

The Ceuta crisis has dominated headlines in Spain since the beginning of August. The crisis, the government’s response, and the international reaction has triggered yet another political headache for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

This week’s briefing, written by Camino Mortera-Martínez, looks at the implications of the Ceuta crisis for the Schengen Area. Camino is a Kigali-based non-resident associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, whose Brussels office she previously headed. She was also a senior adviser on European Affairs to Spain’s Prime Minister from 2024-25.

Also in this newsletter, we update you on Sweden’s incoming prime minister’s ambitions for the EU, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s push to shield Britain from the EU’s Made in Europe policy, a new alliance of Member States to cut national red tape, and Canada’s cautious approach to the EU’s ’associate membership’ pitch. Check out my selection of suggested good reads at the end of the newsletter as well.

A big thanks to Joe Pearn for his help putting this edition together. As always, feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, follow us on LinkedIn, and get in touch at contact@whatsupeu.co

Owain

On 30 and 31 July 2026, more than 80,000 people crossed from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. Within 48 hours, 70,000 had voluntarily gone back to Morocco and none have since reached mainland Spain, according to the Spanish government. At least 141 people died trying to reach Ceuta, and between 5,000 and 11,000 - including thousands of unaccompanied minors - remain in a city of 83,000.

The diplomatic dispute that followed had little to do with those numbers and everything to do with trust in the Schengen Area. The expectation, unique to Schengen among the world’s border regimes, is that every Member State will guard its stretch of the external border, and that the passport-free area’s machinery will not be turned against its members. In Ceuta, both expectations broke down, putting significant pressure on the Schengen system and exposing wider weaknesses.

A crisis of trust, not migration

How so many people managed to suddenly cross a well-policed border, and why Morocco did not stop them, has triggered a deep political crisis in Spain. Explanations abound. Some say the massive crossing was sparked by a ruling from the Spanish Supreme Court over the illegality of pushbacks of migrants arriving by sea. Others point to a combination of a more emboldened Morocco testing Spain’s borders and a more deferential Spanish government, which needs Morocco’s support to contain migration. The Spanish government has changed tune several times. From blaming smugglers to Russia and Israel, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has, just this week, also admitted that Morocco may have played a role.

Spain applies a “double filter” border system in its exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla - both surrounded by Morocco - for all crossings from Morocco and for travel to the Spanish mainland (and from there to the rest of the Schengen Area), since it joined in 1991, precisely to stop their special status from opening a back door into the passport-free zone.

Although those entering Ceuta had little prospect of travelling to the rest of the Schengen Area, the crisis quickly became politicised. Italy reintroduced checks on travellers from Spain on 1 August, and 22 heads of government in Europe, led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, signed a joint letter accusing Spain of creating “pull factors” for migration, including the regularisation of between 600,000 and 1 million undocumented migrants in Spain over the summer. Spain retaliated by introducing its own border checks with Italy a week later, and both countries have since extended these to 1 October.

Three tests Schengen failed

There are three principles that enable Schengen to work, and each was tested by the Ceuta crisis. First, the Schengen border needs to be definitive: those inside and outside it need to know where it lies, and those outside need to know what would happen if they tried to cross it without permission. Second, it needs to be defensible: those inside it should be able and willing to defend it. Third, and perhaps most importantly, it needs to be credible: both insiders and outsiders should know that everything possible will be done to protect it. In Ceuta, the Schengen border was none of these things.

The EU’s initial response was split rather than collective. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen initially called only for the crossings to stop and swift returns. She later changed course, emphasising EU support for Spain. She also took a firmer position in her State of the Union address on 16 September, stating that “Ceuta’s border is a European border. Because Ceuta is Spain. Ceuta is Europe. And Europe will be there for you.”

Temporary controls were always designed as a “safety valve” to relieve pressure on the passport-free area in emergencies. They are now being used to exert political pressure on other Member States. Temporary internal border controls are routine, and around a third of the Schengen Area’s 29 members had some in place before the Ceuta incident. Using controls to punish a Member State, rather than to manage a genuine threat at a shared border, is new. Austria has even cited Ceuta among its reasons for extending checks on its own borders with Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and Slovenia, an issue that has nothing to do with Morocco.

The wider impact

Both Morocco’s boldness and the EU’s hesitation have a precedent that should worry the Schengen Area’s members. In 2021, Belarus funneled migrants toward the Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian borders, and the EU responded by highlighting Belarus’s role and sanctioning the airlines involved. This time, emboldened by its success in pushing its claims on Western Sahara in the US and Europe, Morocco used European hostility to irregular migration as leverage.

If neither the Commission nor Spain shows that putting pressure on the border carries a cost, adversaries and partners alike will conclude that the Schengen Area’s external frontier is negotiable. Russia and Belarus are already drawing that lesson.

Renewing the pact, not rewriting it

The Ceuta crisis does not call for new legal architecture. Article 29 of the Schengen Borders Code, the only mechanism to address “serious deficiencies” at the external border, has been used just once, during the 2016 migration crisis in Greece, and Greece remained in Schengen throughout.

Ceuta exposed a lapse in the trust the pact was built on: that every Member State will defend its shared borders, and that instrumentalising migration against a partner will carry a cost. The Schengen Area is not immune to increasing political polarisation, or to the populist exploitation of public concerns about migration. To rebuild trust, the Commission should enforce the rules impartially, Member States need to decide whether to trust each other again, and the EU should draw on its diplomatic and economic leverage whenever a third country tries to weaponise migration against it.

Ceuta will not spell the end of Schengen. The Schengen Area has survived worse crises than this one. It will not survive many more if governments treat its safety valve as a weapon against their neighbours. The Schengen Area has proved flexible and strong enough to withstand everything from a pandemic to a refugee crisis to a war in Europe. Unless it can restore its credibility, the Schengen Area will continue to come under pressure. Ceuta has exposed a low point in trust amongst EU countries - the next crisis may be harder to contain.

ANDERSSON’S EU • Magdalena Andersson, on course to become Sweden’s next prime minister after this month’s election, told Politico she wants to scrap the national veto on EU foreign policy in favour of qualified majority voting.

She also wants the EU to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets to fund Ukraine. “Take them, use them,” she said, dismissing Belgian legal objections that have stalled the plan for over a year. Andersson also wants closer alignment with Canada, and hopes Britain will one day rejoin the bloc.

Andersson is still negotiating a coalition after her four-party bloc won the election by a three-seat margin, and has ruled out working with the far-right Sweden Democrats who backed the outgoing government.

MADE IN EUROPE • UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham used a meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday to push for the UK’s inclusion in the EU’s Made in Europe industrial policy, warning Britain risks “collateral damage” from rules aimed at Chinese competitors.

Burnham said the “associate membership” status floated for Canada is not on offer to Britain. EU diplomats are split, with some Member States wanting the UK folded into the bloc’s Industrial Accelerator Act, while France, Poland, Italy and Greece are pushing for a tougher line.

Former UK PM Tony Blair urged Burnham’s government this week to drop its red lines on closer ties with the EU and chart a path back toward membership. The EU-UK summit meant to finalise the wider post-Brexit reset in relations, originally due in July, still has no confirmed date.

RED TAPE PACT • At least 17 EU governments have endorsed an Austrian-Italian initiative called the ’Alliance for the Reduction of Bureaucratic Burden’, aimed at stopping national authorities “gold-plating” EU rules with extra requirements when being implemented at a national level.

Austria’s state secretary for simplification, Sepp Schellhorn, said the goal is to “steal the good ideas from each other, leave the bad ones at home.” The Commission’s Omnibus proposals could already save €17 billion a year in administrative costs, with a target of cutting red tape 25% for large firms and 35% for small ones.

Internal single market barriers already amount to the equivalent of a 45 to 60% tariff, according to ECB estimates. EU Commission President Von der Leyen has separately called for a “Pact Against Gold Plating”, arguing Member States must also cut their own red tape rather than leaving simplification to Brussels alone. The Commission plans further simplification proposals next year covering banking, housing, transport and digital services.

ASSOCIATE STATUS • Canada’s ambassador-designate to the EU, Jonathan Wilkinson, played down the ’associate membership’ status that Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Carney both endorsed this month. “We’d rather people focus on the substance,” he said.

The status doesn’t formally exist and has unsettled several Member States. Germany, in particular, pushed back, having failed in its own earlier attempt to have Ukraine labelled an “associate member” rather than granted the full membership Kyiv has applied for. Wilkinson said the partnership would cover critical raw materials, energy, digital services and AI, areas where Canada wants to cut its dependence on both China and the US.

Talks with EU Member States, who must approve any new arrangement, will intensify before a summit at the end of October. Unresolved trade tensions remain on both sides, from Canada’s steel tariffs and ’Buy Canadian’ procurement rules to the EU’s incoming carbon border tax and deforestation import ban.

• Professor Marc Weller at Chatham House examines how Denmark’s new agreement with the US over Greenland is a rare success for level-headed diplomacy in a period of intensely unstable global politics, highlighting the ’power of unity’ for EU and NATO members.
• Taking a refreshingly optimistic stance, Caroline de Gruyter in Foreign Policy argues that Europe’s lack of a ’single phone number’ is an unacknowledged strength, representing the institutional separation of powers and a system which, despite its complexity and the slower pace of policymaking, often leads to compromise and unity.
• Anthony Dworkin at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) sets out a new blueprint for Britain’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, arguing that the UK should pursue closer ties with the EU and Member States on areas including defence, security, tech and wider economic security.