The head of France’s powerful farmers union FNSEA, Arnaud Rousseau, on Sunday called for “a major day of action” on September 26, in an interview with a French newspaper.
In the FNSEA’s crosshairs: “Mercosur, Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the flood of international imports that fail to meet our standards,” Rousseau declared.
The looming mobilisation looks like a last-ditch attempt to derail the trade accord between the EU and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The pact would create the world’s largest free-trade area, covering more than 700 million consumers.
Path to ratification
Institutionally, however, ratification seems closer than ever.
On Wednesday, the European Commission submitted the trade chapter of the agreement to the Council. Approval requires a qualified majority — at least 15 member states representing 65% of the EU’s population — and should pass without difficulty.
France and Italy, both sceptical of the deal as recently as this summer despite negotiations dating back to the late 1990s, now appear resigned to supporting it.
What changed was the Commission’s pledge, made over the summer, to introduce legislation tightening monitoring of imports. This initiative — separate from the treaty text — would trigger an automatic probe if imports of a given product rise by more than 10%, or if import prices fall by 10% or more compared with European levels.
This promise seems to have sufficed to bring Paris and Rome on board, though both capitals are pressing for the legislative proposal to materialise quickly.
Mercosur governments, who might justifiably bridle at such unilateral European tinkering with the agreement’s implementation, are for now keeping quiet. The measure would come on top of protections already granted to European farmers in the free-trade treaty.
Import quotas
The deal allows up to 180,000 tonnes of poultry from Mercosur countries to enter the EU tariff-free each year — just 1.4% of EU output — along with 16 million tonnes of sugar (1.2% of EU consumption).
For beef, 99,000 tonnes would be admitted annually at a tariff of 7.5%, equal to 1.5% of European production. Beyond these quotas, punitive tariffs would apply to South American farm goods — an attempt to shield Europe’s most vulnerable agricultural sectors.
Around the Council table, only Poland still finds these safeguards inadequate, arguing they ignore farmers’ sensitivity. That stance falls well short of forming a blocking minority.
Provisional implementation
The European Parliament is also expected to endorse the deal, barring any unforeseen circumstances, paving the way for provisional application of its trade chapter.
The Commission has split the agreement in two, advancing the commercial aspects first. Those require ratification only by the Council and Parliament. The other, more political provisions — less contentious — will be left to the 27 national legislatures.
Provided ratification also proceeds in Mercosur states, the trade deal could begin taking effect before the end of 2026.
By 2040, tariffs on the vast majority of goods traded between the blocs would be scrapped — 91% of EU exports, according to Commission forecasts. Brussels expects European exports to South America to jump by nearly 40%. With the US market closing off, it argues, Mercosur offers a valuable outlet.
Opposition remains
That prospect is unwelcome to the FNSEA, which spearheaded farmer protests in 2024 that pushed the French government to toughen its stance. For now, however, other French unions have not joined the call to mobilise, and the movement lacks the European scope seen last year.
In early September, nine farm organisations — including Copa-Cogeca, the EU’s main agricultural lobby — restated their opposition, insisting the Commission’s assurances fall short.
Meanwhile, some 20 MEPs from across the political spectrum, including Renew’s Pascal Canfin, are pushing Parliament to adopt a resolution seeking to challenge, before the EU Court of Justice, the legality of the rebalancing mechanism agreed with Mercosur earlier this year.